INDIA 2025: TRADE WAR OPPORTUNITY ANALYSIS
GDP GROWTH TRAJECTORY
US-China trade diversion effect India: 6.8%
China: 4.2%
USA: 1.7%
+120bps boost from trade war rerouting
TRADE BALANCE SHIFT
2023 vs 2025PElectronics Exports
$42B → $78B (+85%)
Pharma Exports
$25B → $39B (+56%)
GDP GROWTH
6.8%
+1.2% from baseline
2023: 6.4%
Potential: 7.2%
EXPORT GROWTH
11.4%
+4.8% YoY
2023: 6.6%
Target: 15%
FDI INFLOWS
$72B
+18% YoY
2023: $61B
Record: $84B
RUPEE STABILITY
81.4/$
-2.4% YoY
2023: 79.5/$
Risk: 84/$
TRADE WAR WINNERS & LOSERS
MANUFACTURING BOOM
PLI-driven sectors gaining from trade war
Electronics: +85% exports
Pharma: +56% exports
Chemicals: +42% exports
Auto: +38% components
SERVICES SECTOR SHIFT
IT/ITES facing new competition
GCCs: +32% expansion (1900→2500 units)
IT Services: +7% growth (vs 9.4% historical)
BPM: -3% growth due to AI automation
VULNERABLE INDUSTRIES
Sectors facing collateral damage
| Sector | Impact | Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Solar Equipment | -22% imports | High |
| Specialty Chem | +8% but volatile | Medium |
| Textiles | -15% vs Vietnam | Critical |
| Agri Exports | +5% limited by EU regs | Medium |
14 sectors need policy intervention
2025 BUDGET STRATEGIC ALLOCATIONS
% of GDP
PLI 2.0 Expansion (0.8%)
Electronics, Pharma, Drones
ROI: 3.2x
Jobs: 2.4M
Infra (1.2%)
Ports, Logistics, Industrial Corridors
ROI: 2.8x
GDP Mul: 1.9x
Semiconductor (0.3%)
Fabs, ATMP, Design
ROI: 5-7y
$27B potential
Import Sub (0.5%)
Solar, Specialty Chem, EV
Save $18B
Tech Risk
GEOPOLITICAL ECONOMIC SHIFTS
TRADE DIVERSION EFFECTS
US-China trade war rerouting (2025P)
Gains: $78B electronics, $39B pharma
Losses: $12B solar, $8B textiles
FDI INFLOW PROJECTIONS
China+1 strategy beneficiaries
US FDI
$18B
Japan FDI
$9.4B
EU FDI
$14.2B
SYSTEMIC RISK MONITOR
stress indicatorsRupee Volatility
14.2%
→ Managed (BOP stable)
Oil Price Risk
$84/bbl
↗ +18% from 2023
Chip Import Bill
$32B
-12% local
+9% exports
Food Inflation
6.8%
Monsoon dependency remains
STRATEGIC POLICY MATRIX
| Policy Area | 2025 Budget | GDP Impact | Export Gain | FDI Potential | Job Creation | Risk Factor | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductor PLI | $3.2B | +0.4% | $18B | $12B | 280K | High | 5-7y |
| Port Modernization | $2.8B | +0.6% | $9B | $4B | 150K | Low | 3-5y |
| Pharma R&D | $1.5B | +0.3% | $14B | $3B | 95K | Medium | 3-4y |
| EV Battery Plants | $2.1B | +0.5% | $7B | $5B | 210K | High | 4-6y |
| Textile Tech | $0.9B | +0.2% | $5B | $1B | 320K | Medium | 2-3y |
Priority sectors aligned with US-China decoupling opportunities
